设为首页 - 加入收藏 - 网站地图 股似海(Www.Gusihai.com) 股票学习网!
当前位置:主页 > 股市理论 > 江恩理论 > 正文

江恩波动法则原文-翻译,心得,探究

时间:2019-02-22 14:36 来源:股似海股票学习网 作者:WTTCODER 阅读:
1 "For the past ten years I have devoted my entiretime and attention to the speculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the novice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of the subject."
在过去的10年中,我把自己所有的时间和精力都投入了投机市场。像大多数人一样,我损失了很多钱,也经历了缺乏准备就入市的新手难免遇到的起落。

2 "I soon began to realize that all successful men,whether Lawyers, Doctors or Scientists, devoted years of time to the study and investigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attempting to make any money out of it."
后来我意识到,所有的成功人士,无论是律师,医生还是科学家,在试图从从事的行业获利之前总会投入多年来学习和研究要进入的行业。

3 "Being in the Brokerage business myself and handling large accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man for studying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others. I found that over ninety percent of the traders who go into the market without knowledge or study usually lose in the end."
做为一个处理大量客户账户的经纪人,我有常人难得的机会来研究他人投机活动的成败原因。我发现,在缺乏对市场的理解时就入市的交易者中有90%以上都以失败告终。

1到3段是一个引子,强调入市需要对市场的理解,是为了引出下文的波动法则,波动法则就是江恩认为的入市之前需要的对市场的了解。入市之前确实必须现有准备,否则必败无疑(几率90%以上)。

4 "I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote ten years of my life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculative markets and to devote my best energies toward making speculation a profitable profession. After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the law of vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points at which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time."
很快我注意到了股票和商品期货涨跌的周期性再现。这让我得出自然法则是市场运动的准则的结论。我决定用10年时间去学习适用于投机市场的自然法则,并尽我最大的努力使投机成为一个有利可图的职业。在对现有科学进行彻底的研究后,我发现波动法则能使我精确的确定在一段给定时间内股票或商品期货应该涨跌的点数。

江恩只是说波动法则能让他精确的确定在一段给定时间内股票或商品期货应该涨跌的点数。
这其实也是江恩认为波动法则是入市之前需要的对市场的了解的原因了。这和传说中的何时何价还是不同的,江恩追求的是结果的正确性,而不会考虑过程,而何时何价则追求过程。

5 The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the street is aware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses.
在华尔街还未有任何概念时,该法则就可以通过确定原因并预测到结果。绝对多数投机者可以证实,正是只关注结果而忽略原因导致导致了他们的损失。
这段话放在这里初看起来比较突兀,其实不然。按照常理这里应该对波动法则的含义进行一些描述,而这里确实波动法则的思维方式:通过确定原因从而来预测结果。这是下文的主线,下文首先会描述原因和结果分别是什么,然后论述二者关系,最后是使用数学来描述二者关系。

4到5段接上文引子提出了波动法则这个概念,并指出波动法则能精确的确定在一段给定时间内股票或商品期货应该涨跌的点数。

6 "It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However, the layman may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phono graphs are based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible."
在此我不会给出我在市场中应用的波动法则的完整概念。但当我说波动法则是无线电报,无线电话和留声机的基础原理时,信徒们还是能够得到它的一些轮廓。没有该法则的存在,上述发明将是不可能的。

该段描述了波动法则的含义。虽说没有明说,但从江恩举的例子的类比中可以得出一个大致的轮廓。无线电报,无线电话都是使用无线电波来承载数据的,而无线电波和周期性循环电流之间有明确的数学关系可以相互转换,有什么样的电流就会有什么样的无线电波,有这个原理,虽然形态不同了,但数据依然可以无损的传输。江恩用这样的例子来类比股市就是再说股票的运动比如价格,成交量,运动方向之类的,就像无线电波一样只是表象,制造该表象的另有原因,而该原因和表象之间是有明确的数学关系可以转换的。由此可以推断波动法则是一种以数学方式来描述投机市场表面波动和内在原因关系的理论。

7 "In order to test the efficiency of my idea I have not only put in years of labour in the regular way, but I spent nine months working night and day in the Astor Library in New York and in the British Museum of London, going over the records of stock transactions as far back as 1820. I have incidentally examined the manipulations of Jay Gould, Daniel Drew,Commodore Vanderbilt & all other important manipulators from that time to the present day. I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to& from the time of E. H. Harriman, Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. The figures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictly in accordance with natural law."
为了验证我的想法的正确性,几年来除了正常工作,我还花了9个月在纽约的Astor图书馆和伦敦的大英博物馆中夜以继日的学习和查阅从1820年以来的股票交易记录。我顺便研究了Jay Gould,Daniel Drew,Commodore Vanderbilt和其他从那时以所有的大炒家。我研究了
Union Pacific公司在E. H. Harriman掌控前后的每个行情。Harriman先生是最好的控制者。数据显示,Harriman先生总是严格按照自然法则来工作,不管是有意或无意的。

这里的想法应该就是上文所说的自然法则是市场运动的准则的结论。

8 "In going over the history of markets and the great mass of related statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variationsin the value of stocks, and that there exists a periodic or cyclic law which is at the back of all these movements. Observation has shown that there are regular periods of intense activity on the Exchange followed by periods of inactivity."
纵观市场的历史和大量的相关统计,某种法则控制着股票价格的变化和波动,并且在这些运动的背后存在周期性的法则的事实就会很明显俩。观察显示在沉寂期后总是伴随着规则的活跃期。

9 Mr. Henry Hall in his recent book devoted much space to"Cycles of Prosperity and Depression," which he found recurring at regular intervals of time. The law(law of vibration) which I have applied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but the daily and even hourly movements of stocks. By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and at what point the greatest resistance is to be met.
Henry Hall先生在他的新书用大幅篇幅来论述他发现的按规则间隔重现的“繁荣和萧条的循环”。我的波动法则不但可以提供这些长期的循环或摆动,而且还有股票日间甚至是小时间的运动。通过对个股波动的确切测定,我可以确定个股在什么位置将得到支撑和在什么点位经遇到最大的阻力。

10 "Those in close touch with the market have noticed the phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall, in the value of stocks. At certain times a stock will become intensely active, large transactions being made in it; at other times this same stock will become practically stationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the law of vibration governs and controls these conditions(cause). I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on the decline."
那些密切关注市场的人已经注意到股价涨跌的现象。在某些时候股票变得很活跃,成交量巨大,其他的时候同一个股票却变得几乎静止,交投清淡。我发现波动法则控制着这些现象,
我也发现该法则在一定时期控制着股票的上涨,而与此完全不同的规则控制着下跌。

7到10段是江恩引用例子来证明自然法则是市场运动的准则的结论。需要注意的是标记为黑体的话,虽然同属波动法则的范畴,但上涨和下跌适用不同的规则。江恩在暗示什么呢?
应该是在说波动法则的规则也就是具体数学描述是不断变化的。

11 "While Union Pacific and other railroad stocks which made their high prices in August were declining, United States Steel Common was steadily advancing. The law of vibration was at work, sending a particular stock on the upward trend whilst others were trending downward."
当在八月份创出高位的Union Pacific和其他铁路股在下跌的时候,United States Steel普通股却在稳步上升。这是波动法则在起作用,它将一个特定股票送入上升趋势而其他的股票正处于下跌趋势。

这段其实提出了一个问题:为什么同属钢铁股,有的在上涨而同时其他的在下跌呢?这就引出了下文关于股票趋势和驱动力之间的关系的讨论。

12 "I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it.The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in themajority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions."
我发现在股票和它背后的驱动力之间存在着和谐或不和谐的关系,所以它所有运动的秘密就显而易见了。用我的方法我可以确定每个股票的波动,在加上对特定时间值的考虑,在大多数情况下我能精确的说出股票在特定条件下的表现。

股票和它背后的驱动力之间的和谐或不和谐的关系。其实就是趋势和多空力量之间的关系,当趋势方向和多空力量方向一致,二者关系和谐,趋势得到延续,反之二者关系不和谐,趋势很有可能发生逆转。需要注意的是二者方向相反也趋势也不一定立刻逆转,可能仍要延续一段时间,这就和刹车的道理是一样的。

这里提出了两个概念,一个是股票趋势,一个是股票背后的驱动力,正是一个果,一个是因,一个是表象,一个是内涵。下文将要对这两个概念进行论述。

江恩精确说出股票在特定条件下的表现有两个步骤,一个是确定每个股票的波动,一个是对特定时间值的考虑。还有一点悬疑就是江恩并没有说确定每个股票波动的方法,而只是说用我的方法,这方法究竟是什么?

13 "The power to determine the trend of the market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individual stock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of vibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental law of vibration. Science teaches that 'an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into a periodic or rhythmical motion; also, just as the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as the advancing year over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises."
确定市场趋势的能力来源于我对个股特性以及一组在其特有波动率下的不同股票了解。股票就像电子,原子和分子,有着和波动法则适应的个性。科学告诉我们任何原始的推动力最终都会转换为一种周期运动或旋律运动。就像摆锤在摆动中往复,就像月球绕轨道运行,就像来年总会带来春天和玫瑰,就像元素性质随原子量的增加周期性重现一样。

本段提出了波动率这个词,也是对上文所说的确定股票在特定条件下的表现的一个补充。
波动,时间最终形成了波动率。

这里也为下文做了一个铺垫,就是任何原始的推动力最终都会转换为一种周期运动或旋律运动。

14 "From my extensive investigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not only do the various stocks vibrate, but that the driving forces controlling the stocks are also in a state of vibration.
These vibratory forces can only be known by the movements they generate on the stocks and their values in the market. Since all great swings or movements of the market are cyclic, they act in accordance with periodic law."
经过我的广泛调查,学习和实践,我发现不只是股票在波动,股票背后控制其的驱动力也在波动。这些波动力只能通过它们在股票上产生的运动和值来认识。既然市场中大的摆动或运动是循环的,它们也是按周期法则在活动的。
这里说明驱动力也是在波动的,而且也是在周期循环的。驱动力是大众操作产生的,而大众操作原自本性心理,人性不变,驱动力必然是周期循环的。

15 "Science has laid down the principle that the properties of an element are a periodic function of its atomic weight. A famous scientist has stated that 'we are brought to the conviction that diversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms is most intimately associated with numerical relationship. The numbers are not intermixed accidentally but are subject to regular periodicity. The changes and developments are seen to be in many cases as somewhat odd."
科学已经阐述了原理,元素性质是原子量的周期函数。一位著名科学家说过,我们将会证明,自然界在不同领域的多样性将以数学关系紧密相连。这些数字不是随机的混杂在一起,而是
规则的周期性的结果。在许多情况下,变化和发展看起来也是稍微有些零散了。

16 Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena, whether in nature or on the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.
因此,我确信每一类现象,不管是自然界还是股票市场,必然受制于因果的通用法则。每个结果必然有一个适当的原因。

将波动力关系和股票运动建立联系,波动力关系是因,股票运动是果,有果必有因。

17 "If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature,because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. Faraday said, "There is nothing in the universe but mathematical points of force."
如果我们希望在投机中避免失败,我们必须研究原因。存在的一切都是基于精确的比例和完美的关系。自然界中没有例外,因为数学原理是万物的最高基础。Faraday说过:“宇宙中除了数字别无它物”。

上文建立因果之后,这里就开始转向数字描述这种因果关系了。

18 "Vibration is fundamental: nothing is exempt from this law. It is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe."
波动是最根本的,万物都是如此,它是普遍的,因此适用于地球上每一类现象。

19 Through the law of vibration every stock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are characterized in its own rate of vibration.Stocks, like atoms, are really centres of energy; therefore, they arecontrolled mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action and power: power to attract and repel, which principle explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead' at other times. Thus, to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to follow natural law.
在波动法则下,股市中的个股都在自身的活动范围内运动,包括强度,成交量和方向,所有本质特征都被自身的波动率所个性化。股票就像原子是一个真正的能量中心,因此收到数学的控制。股票创造了自身的活动领域和吸引排斥的力量,这个原理解释了为什么特定股票有时领导市场而有时又陷入沉寂。因此要科学的投机就必须遵循自然法则。
强度,成交量和方向之类的股票运动都是表象,它们是由于背后的波动力之间的关系按照波动率转换造成的。

11到19段是从理论上来论述波动法则的内涵以及能够预测股票涨跌的原因。首先指出什么是表象,什么是原因,然后论述二者之间的关系并提高到数学的高度来描述该关系。

20 "After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration (law) explains every possible phase and condition of the market."
在多年的潜心研究后,我已经完全确信并向他人证明,波动法则完全可以解释市场的每个阶段和可能。

该段得出结论,波动法则是市场运动的基础,它完全可以解释市场的每个阶段和可能。


波动法则是市场运动的基础,它可以解释市场的每个阶段和可能。只所以可以解释市场的每个阶段和可能是因为对每个股票的波动率的测定,而波动率是由波动和时间两个要素组成的,显然波动率应该是一个类似比率的概念。波动率是否可以直接测定?江恩已经含糊的暗示我们波动率是多变的,只能通过其他的方法来认识。这个方法是什么呢?我想应该就是江恩角度线。

(责任编辑:股似海)

顶一下
(0)
0%
踩一下
(0)
0%
发表评论
请自觉遵守互联网相关的政策法规,严禁发布色情、暴力、反动的言论。